Simplifying renewable energy models

Financial modelling for renewables


John Dimberline


03 Sep 2019




While the news often paints a gloomy picture - the Amazon is burning and Germany is struggling to make the economic and social transition away from brown coal - there are plenty of reasons to cheer when one reads the degree to which renewables are providing ever more of world’s energy.

This year, the UK has seen weeks where coal has played no part in the energy supply for the first time since 1882.

In my eyes there’s an inherent beauty in renewable energy projects, a beauty drawn from their simplicity – the sun shines; the wind blows and from that we get energy. Conversely, we’ve come across financial models underpinning such projects whose complexity defies the very simplicity of what they are seeking to quantify. The hoops developers must jump through, the myriad of power pricing schemes defined by national jurisdictions and the complexity of financing, conspire to leave the modeller juggling competing requirements that con sometimes seem hell bent on stopping the project getting started. At F1F9 we’ve undertaken many modelling assignments with the objective of ironing out that complexity.

Renewables promise a cleaner, cheaper, more flexible and widely-distributed approach to power generation. So too the FAST Standard offers a cheaper and more flexible approach to modelling and we’d like to share that approach with you.

We’ve recently launched a Financial Modelling for Renewables course which will help you take the most efficient approach to the modelling of renewables projects. Having seen frequently how others do it, and developed over 50 renewables models ourselves, we’ve applied FAST principles from front to back to achieve what we consider the essence of what a renewables project model should be, namely:

– the ability to quickly switch between different levels of confidence in generation forecasts

– the ability to optimise a model in two mutually exclusive views of the future

– the ability to capture seasonality, and

– try on different financing solutions with minimal additional complexity

You can now book your place on the public renewables courses in October and January, and we’ll be releasing further dates soon. In the meantime if you’d like to discuss modelling of your renewables projects then do get in touch.

At F1F9 we’re at the forefront in our own sector.  Let us help you stay at the forefront of yours.

John Dimberline
John has 18+ years of experience and has led advisory teams on a large number of complex projects supporting both public sector procurers, private sector bidders and corporates.